Dear All,
Forwarding you the Result Flash on BGR for 4QFY2011.
Revenues drop on lower execution: After quantum leaps since past several quarters, BGR reported a dip in its top-line. Revenues for the quarter de-grew by 11.9% yoy to `1,462cr which was slightly lower than our estimate of `1,496cr. However, with strong performance delivered in last 3 quarters, annual revenues grew by 55% yoy to `4,761cr (`3,074cr).
EBIDTA margins: EBITDA margins reported for the quarter were at 11.5% which was marginally higher by 20bps from our estimate of 11.3% and 90bps higher than the reported margins for 4QFY10. EBIDTA reported for the quarter was at `167cr which was in line with our estimate of `169cr.
Reported PAT ahead of estimates: In tandem with lower revenues, PAT decreased 9.9% yoy `98cr (`108cr) which was 26.4% higher than our estimate of `78cr. For FY2011, PAT increased by 61.3% yoy to `324cr (`201cr).
Overall, the reported numbers were broadly in line with our estimates. At CMP of `461, the stock is trading at 9.3x and 5.5x its FY2012E and FY2013E earnings estimate. We will revise our estimates and recommendation, and will release a detailed result update shortly. Currently, the stock is under review.
Exhibit 1: Actual vs Estimates
| (` cr) | Actual | Estimates | Var (%) |
| Revenue | 1,462 | 1,496 | (2.3) |
| EBITDA | 167 | 169 | (0.7) |
| PAT | 98 | 78 | 26.4 |
| EPS | 13.7 | 10.8 | 26.4 |
Exhibit 2: Quarterly Performance
| (` cr) | 4QFY11 | 4QFY10 | % chg (yoy) | 3QFY11 | % chg (qoq) | FY11 | FY10 | % chg (yoy) |
| Net Sales | 1,457 | 1,657 | (12.1) | 1,251 | 16.5 | 4,747 | 3,069 | 54.7 |
| Other operating income | 4 | 3 | - | 6 | - | 13 | 5 | - |
| Total income | 1,462 | 1,660 | (11.9) | 1,257 | 16.3 | 4,761 | 3,074 | 54.9 |
| Stock adjustments | 2 | 0.04 | | (3) | | (3) | 2 | |
| Raw Material | 1,237 | 1,382 | (10.5) | 1,013 | 22.1 | 3,916 | 2,485 | 57.6 |
| (% of total income) | 84.6 | 83.3 | | 80.6 | | 82.3 | 80.8 | |
| Employee Cost | 35 | 48 | (25.6) | 41 | (14.7) | 143 | 125 | 14.7 |
| (% of total income) | 2.4 | 2.9 | | 3.3 | | 3.0 | 4.1 | |
| Other Expenses | 20 | 55 | (63.3) | 58 | (65.3) | 154 | 114 |
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