Weekly E-Magazine : Global cues to dictate trend

Dear V M S Reddy, We understand the need for the right research to make smart  investment decisions. To keep you well informed, we present the market outlook for this week.   Previous Week : Sensex was down by 242 points for the week to settle at 17,562.61   Indian equity benchmarks during last week were highly volatile on the back of ongoing crisis in the Euro area. Nifty witnessed profit booking in the first half of the week after gaining more then 6% during previous week. Nifty during second half of the week bounced back taking support at the 5200 levels as euro-zone debt worries eased after Greece shelved plans for a financial-bailout referendum coupled with an surprising monetary loosing (interest-rate cut) from the European Central Bank (ECB). The Sensex was down by 242 points or -1.4% for the week to settle at 17,562.61 whereas the Nifty closed at 5284.20, down by 76.5 points or -1.4% Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Communication, Reliance Power, State Bank of India and BHEL were the major gainers where as Tata Motors, Steel Authority of India, Reliance industries, Mahindra & Mahindra and Coal India were the major draggers in the index during last week India's exports rose by 36.4% YoY to USD 24.8 billion in September. However, on a MoM basis, exports remained flat, below the USD 25 billion mark for the second consecutive month, after climbing beyond USD 29 billion in the months of June and July. Meanwhile, imports rose by 17.2% YoY to USD 34.6 billion On the earnings front, HUL reported earnings which were ahead of street   estimates. Banking majors Bank of Baroda and Punjab National Bank reported in line set of financial results However PNB disappointed the street with fresh restructured loans raising concerns on asset quality. SAIL numbers were below street expectations Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in 10.06% for the month of September compared with 8.99% annual rise in the previous month. Core sector growth for the month of September 2011 came in at 2.3%, a 31 month low Nymex crude declined by 2% on a weekly basis to close at $91.87 /barrel (on Thursday) Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank was closely monitoring developments in Europe and left open the possibility that the Fed could expand its holdings of mortgage debt if U.S. economic conditions worsened On the economy front, data showed U.S. private employers added more jobs than expected last month, continuing a recent pattern of better-than-expected economic data On Thursday, ECB, unexpectedly cut the rates by 25 bps from 1.5% to 1.25%     Week Ahead : Key data to watch globally would be US construction spending     Nifty during last week formed an inside day candle on the weekly chart with a long lower shadow means traded in the range of previous week candle. The presence of long lower shadow signifies support at the lower levels around 5200-5140 from the confluence of previous resistance trendline and the 38.2% retracement of the recent rise (4728-5399). Failure to hold the 5140 level could lead to deeper cuts in the short-term and can test 5000 levels. On the higher side 5400-5450 is seen as a key hurdle where the index will face resistance from the one year long trendline joining previous tops and also the presence of 200 days SMA Sustaining above the critical resistance level it can test 5550 levels on the higher side In the month of November (November 3) FIIs and DIIs have sold shares worth 13 crores and 579 crores respectively Key data to watch globally would be US construction spending, US consumer credit change. US wholesale inventories, US jobless claims In India, next week the key data to watch would be weekly inflation. Key companies declaring results next week would be SBI, Coal India and Tata Steel   Sincerely, ICICIdirect.com  Did you know : You can leverage up to 85% of your Demat holdings and trade   in Futures without bringing additional margin with Shares as Margin.