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Saturday, May 28, 2011
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Friday, May 27, 2011
Result Flash - SpiceJet - 4QFY2011 - Neutral
Dear All,
Forwarding you the Result Flash on SpiceJet for 4QFY2011 with a Neutral Recommendation.
SpiceJet – 4QFY2011 & FY2011 financial result highlights-
· For 4QFY2011, SpiceJet’s net sales increased by 35.6% yoy to `759cr on the back of a strong increase in passenger traffic as well as fleet additions during the year. The company ended FY2011 with a 35.5% yoy increase in net sales to `2,934cr.
· EBITDA came in at (`72.6cr) in 4QFY2011 despite strong growth in revenue due to an 84.7% yoy increase in fuel cost to `399cr. Fuel cost per ASKM stood at 1.37/ASKM in 4QFY2011 vs. 1.0/ASKM in 4QFY2010 and 1.15/ASKM in 3QFY2011. Consequently, because of higher fuel prices, EBITDA margin also took a bad hit, coming in at negative 9.6%. EBITDAR came in at `50cr, down 53%yoy and 77.4% qoq. EBITDAR margin stood at positive 6.5%.
· For FY2011, EBITDA witnessed a huge increase of 342% yoy to `116cr. The company’s margin also increased by 274bp to 3.9% on the back of strong numbers in 9MFY2011. EBITDAR came in at `544cr, up 30.8% yoy, but margin declined by 53bp to 18.5%.
· 4QFY2011 witnessed a 314% yoy decrease in PAT to (`59cr) on the back margin compression during the quarter. Consequently, PAT margin also declined by 1,263bp yoy to negative 7.7%.
· FY2011 witnessed a strong increase of 64.7% yoy in PAT to `101cr on the back of higher revenue as well as margin expansion. Consequently, PAT margin also expanded by 65bp to 2.5%.
· Outlook: Given the sharp increase in fuel prices, we have a cautions view on the whole sector. We continue to maintain our Neutral rating on the stock. We may change our rating and numbers post an interaction with the management and come out with a detailed report.
4Q and FY2011 – Performance highlights
| Particulars (` cr) | 4QFY2011 | 4QFY2010 | %chg (yoy) | 3QFY2011 | %chg (qoq) | FY2011 | FY2010 | %chg(yoy) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net Sales | 759 | 559.6 | 35.6 | 830.1 | (8.6) | 2,934.4 | 2,181.1 | 34.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total Expenditure | 831.4 | 548.9 | 51.5 | 716.1 | 16.1 | 2,818.7 | 2,154.9 | 30.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EBITDA | (72.6) | 10.7 | (776.4) | 114.0 | (163.6) | 115.7 | 26.1 | 342.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EBITDA Margin (%) | (9.6) | 1.9 | (1,148) | 13.7 | (2,330) | 3.9 | 1.2 | 274 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EBITDAR | 49.7 | 105.7 | (53.0) | 220.0 | (77.4) | 544.2 | 416.0 | 30.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EBITDAR Margin (%) | 6.5 | 18.9 | (1,234) | 26.5 | (1,996) | 18.5 | 19.1 | (53) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2.4 | 1.9 | 30.2 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 16.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EBIT | (75.0) | 8.9 | (946.9) | 111.7 | (167.1) | 106.8 | 18.5 | 477.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Interest | 1.2 | 1.4 | (16.7) | 1.0 | 21.0 | 4.8 | 6.1 | (21.1) Hindalco-Novelis - RU4QFY2011 - Buy
Dear All, Forwarding you the Result Update on Hindalco-Novelis for 4QFY2011 with a Buy recommendation and a Target Price of `243 (12 months). Top-line growth aided by higher realisation and shipments: Novelis, Hindalco’s fully-owned subsidiary, reported strong set of numbers for 4QFY2011. The top line increased by 22.3% yoy and 15.6% qoq to US$2,960mn, as total shipments grew by 12.7% yoy and 3.0% qoq to 800kt, driven by strong demand across all product segments. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 21.2% yoy and 17.6% qoq to US$280mn, largely because of portfolio optimisation and increased prices. Thus, adjusted EBITDA/tonne came in at US$350/tonne. Net interest expenses grew by 92.7% yoy to US$79mn. Net profit came in at US $50mn in 4QFY2011 vs. a loss of US$1mn in 4QFY2010. Capacity expansion to meet strong demand: With demand for automotives, electronics and beverage cans expected to grow by >25%, 10–15% and 4–5%, respectively, in the next five years, Novelis is expanding its capacity by 1,000kt with capex of US$1.5bn; in Brazil by 220kt, Asia by 350kt and North America by 200kt and the balance through debottlenecking. In FY2012, 3–4% of the capacity is expected to be commissioned through debottlenecking. Management has guided for capex of US$550mn–600mn in FY2012, which is likely to be funded through internal cash flows, indicating no dividend payment in FY2012. Outlook and valuation: We believe Hindalco is well placed to benefit from a) its aluminium expansion plans (capacity increasing by two-three folds in the next two-four years), b) low production cost at its new capacities and c) steady capacity expansion at Novelis. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 7.1x FY2012E and 5.5x FY2013E EV/EBITDA. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with an SOTP target price of `243. Kindly click on the following link to view the Report. If you have any further queries, feel free to call us on 022 39357600, Extn: 6865 or mail us at advisory@angelbroking.com
With best regards, Fundamental Advisory Desk Angel Broking Akruti Star,6th Floor, Road No.7,MIDC, Andheri (E),Mumbai – 93. Call : (91) (022) 39357600 Ext. 6865 Website : www.angelbroking.com Disclaimer: Ours is an advisory role. The final decision and consequences based on our information is solely yours. Moreover, in keeping with regulatory guidelines, we do not guarantee any returns on investments. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Result Flash - Page Inds - 4QFY2011 - Accumulate
Dear All, Forwarding you the Result Flash on Page Industries for 4QFY2011 with an Accumulate recommendation and a Target Price of `1898 (12 months). Page Industries – 4QFY2011 and FY2011 financial result highlights · For 4QFY2011, net sales increased by 34.7% yoy and declined by 16.9% qoq to `111cr and was inline with our estimates. · The company ended FY2011 with a 44.8% yoy increase in net sales to `492cr vs. our expectation of `493cr. · EBITDA increased by 14.0% yoy in 4QFY2011 to `17.1cr but witnessed a decline of 38.3% qoq on the back of lower revenue generated on a qoq basis. The margin took a hit of 280bp yoy and 532bp qoq to 15.4% because of increased other expenses and staff cost. · For FY2011, EBITDA increased by 45.6% yoy to `401cr but margin dipped by 42bp at 18.5%. · 4QFY2011 witnessed a 17.6% yoy decrease in PAT to `12.9cr on the back of margin compression during the quarter. However, PAT margin only declined by 10bp yoy to 11.6% due to lower tax provisions during the quarter, which stood at 17.5% of PBT. · FY2011 witnessed a strong increase in PAT by 47.8% yoy to `59cr on the back of higher revenue. Though OPM contracted during the year, PAT margin increased by 24bp to 11.9% due to higher other income, which increased by 89% to `12cr. · Outlook and valuation: Considering the immense potential of India’s consumption story, the company’s predominant presence in a fast-growing market, strong brand recall and consistent financial performance, we remain positive on the stock and. We continue to maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `1,898, valuing it at 24x FY2013 earnings. We may revise our numbers post interaction with the management. 4Q And FY2011 Performance Highlights
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